NOAA Reaffirms Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has reaffirmed its prediction of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as per its latest forecast update.
Raleigh Durham, NC, August 7, 2026 —
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season, reaffirming its prediction of a below-normal number of storms. This latest forecast was issued following a review of current atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
NOAA’s updated forecast indicates that the conditions conducive to hurricane development are less likely to materialize this season. Factors influencing this prediction include the ongoing presence of El Niño, which typically suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin by increasing wind shear. Additionally, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, while usually a catalyst for storm formation, are being counteracted by other atmospheric patterns identified in the latest assessment.
The agency has not provided specific numbers for the expected storm count in this update, but the reaffirmation of a “below-normal” season suggests a continuation of the trends observed in their initial forecast. A typical Atlantic hurricane season, defined as the period from June 1 to November 30, produces an average of 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three reach major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher).
Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center continuously monitor a range of variables, including sea surface temperatures, atmospheric pressure, wind patterns, and the state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The combination of these elements forms the basis for their seasonal predictions. The agency emphasizes that even in a below-normal season, the threat of landfalling hurricanes remains, underscoring the importance of preparedness for coastal communities.
NOAA typically issues its initial hurricane season outlook in May, with updates in August. This reaffirmation serves to provide the public and emergency management agencies with the most current scientific assessment of potential storm activity throughout the remainder of the season.
Story summarized from the original created by web.operations@abc11mail.com(WTVD-TV Raleigh-Durham) on abc11.com, see more information here.
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