UNITED STATES – One in ten of the world’s data centers already faces high risk from at least one climate hazard, even after accounting for local adaptation capacity. That is according to an analysis of 8,707 operating and planned data centers by AlphaGeo, a climate and location intelligence platform. Without adjusting for local adaptation, the figure would be more than four in ten. AlphaGeo’s Data Center Climate Risk Report 2026 projects that the share of high-risk sites will rise to one in six by 2050 and nearly one in four by 2100, driven mainly by heat stress.

 

The timing matters. The International Energy Agency’s Energy and AI report estimates that data centers used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, around 1.5% of global demand. It expects that figure to more than double, to about 945 TWh, by 2030. The United States accounts for the largest share, about 45%. Much of the capacity that will power AI over the next decade is being sited now.

 

How the analysis was done

 

AlphaGeo scored every facility against eight climate hazards: heat stress, drought, inland flooding, coastal flooding, hurricane wind, wildfire, hail and landslide. Each score was adjusted for local adaptation, such as flood defenses, drainage and urban greenery, and for the resilience of the surrounding community. The result is a resilience-adjusted risk score that reflects the risk a site is likely to face in practice, rather than its theoretical exposure. A site counts as high risk if at least one hazard reaches the High or Very High band on AlphaGeo’s score card. The central scenario is SSP3-7.0, a medium-high emissions pathway. The results were then translated into 12 financial metrics, including value loss, insurance premiums, insurability, downtime, utility demand and retrofit costs.
 

Key findings

 

●      10% of data centers face high climate risk today. 864 sites score High or Very High on at least one hazard, even after accounting for local adaptation already in place. That rises to 1,442 (17%) by 2050 and 2,050 (24%) by 2100.

●      Heat stress drives the increase. Sites at high heat risk rise from 2 today to 531 by 2050 and 1,190 by 2100.

●      High-risk sites lose twice as much value. Climate impacts could cut net present value by 14.3% over a 10-year hold for high-risk sites, compared to a 6.7% loss for other assets.

●      Local adaptation matters. Scored based on physical hazard alone, 3,822 sites (44%) would be considered high risk today. Factoring in the impact of existing defenses and community resilience reduce that to 864 (10%), or a 77% reduction.

●      Further adaptation could recover two-thirds of losses. At high-risk sites, additional adaptation measures could recover a further 9.5 points of the projected 14.3% loss in net present value.

 

Why it matters for developers and investors

 

A data center is built to run for decades, so the location decision locks in its climate costs for just as long. Screening for physical risk at the site selection stage costs far less than retrofitting a facility once it is running. AlphaGeo’s free Data Center Suitability tool screens every U.S. county on power and grid, connectivity, water availability, site economics and climate resilience.

 

Planning for adaptation is equally important for both new and existing sites. “Physical climate risk exposure is only half the story,” said Xiaoyou Mok, Chief Strategy Officer at AlphaGeo. “The other half is adaptation preparedness. Measuring risk without accounting for existing resilience can overstate exposure and misdirect adaptation spending, while reporting risk alone gives owners little guidance on what to do next. That’s why AlphaGeo has always championed a resilience-first approach, helping clients assess both risk and adaptation needs across new and existing assets to build long-term resilience.”

How AlphaGeo helps

 

●      Climate Resilience Suite. Provides climate risk screening across real estate and infrastructure assets, assesses resilience, models the financial impact of physical risk and helps prioritize adaptation measures. Includes bespoke methodologies for data centers.

●      Alpha Finder. AlphaGeo’s AI-powered location research service supports data center site selection. It pairs agentic AI with expert analysts and a location data lake covering climate risk and resilience, power availability and reliability, water risk and future growth potential.

●      Data Center Suitability. A free, county-level screen of the United States that scores data center site suitability on power and grid, connectivity, water availability, site economics and climate resilience.

 

Read the full Data Center Climate Risk Report 2026 for additional findings on climate risks affecting data centers.

About AlphaGeo

 

AlphaGeo is an AI-powered climate and location intelligence platform helping investors understand geographic risk, resilience, and opportunity. Its analytics span physical climate risk and resilience, to demographic trends, real estate market dynamics, and macroeconomic potential, amongst others, enabling investors to make smarter decisions about where to invest and how to build long-term value. Clients include institutional investors, real asset and data center operators, as well as global consultancies, such as Khazna Data Centers, EQT, and ENGIE Impact.

Email: Jennifer Kwek (Chief of Staff), jennifer@alphageo.ai

 

 

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